downdb.net

Jeff Jarvis expands on speculation from the NY Daily News’s David Hinckley that Howard Stern could leave Sirius and go independent via the Internet:

Indeed, he could. Technology makes it possible: We could listen to him – and watch him – on the internet, on our iPods, and even now on our web-enabled phones. There’s no longer a need for a distribution network.

The numbers could be impressive. Stern brought an estimated 6-8 million listeners to Sirius. I’ve talked with a measurement company that did a study on his impact on satellite and concluded that a majority of users were there and paying $12.95 a month because of him. So say that half those people – 3.5 million – would pay half that much – $6 – to get Stern anywhere and on-demand. That’s $252 million.

I’m skeptical.

While I’d like to think Jarvis is right, I’m not sure the audience numbers Stern gets on satellite radio would translate to Internet-only distribution. Personally, while I’d rather not listen to Howard Stern at all, if I had to, I’d prefer it be via the model Jarvis suggests. However, I don’t think I (or Jeff Jarvis, for that matter) are typical media consumers.

For the average consumer, listening to satellite radio is a relatively easy transition from listening to terrestrial radio. Sure, you have buy a special box and subscribe, but otherwise, there’s not that much difference. This setup is fundamentally different from having a PC, laptop, or other “media box”-type computer plugged into your stereo, or downloading and syncing podcasts to a portable media player.

To put it another way, I think the issue is similar to the “What do you mean I have to watch it on my computer?” reaction one gets when trying to explain IPTV to someone who is not technologically savvy. Moving the content over to a different delivery mechanism does not mean all the viewers or listeners are going to follow, especially if the new delivery mechanism is fundamentally different than the old one and requires a change of habits and behaviors.